Hollyker (603898) In-depth Research Report: Actively respond to the long-term sustainable development strength of the industry transformation

Hollyker (603898) In-depth Research Report: Actively respond to the long-term sustainable development strength of the industry transformation

Hollyk is mainly focusing on the wardrobe business and gradually expanding new categories.

Established in 2007 and listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in February 2015, Hollyker is a custom home furnishing company that integrates design, research and development, production and sales, and is committed to providing consumers with a whole-house solution.

At present, the company’s wardrobe is the main business category, and it continues to develop cabinets, wooden doors and other businesses. In 2018, the company’s overall wardrobe, cabinets, wooden doors, and finished products supporting operating income were 19.

860,000 yuan, 24.7 million yuan, 7.08 million yuan, 71.99 million yuan, accounting for 95% of revenue respectively.

03%, 1.

18%, 0.

34%, 3.

45%.

  The transition period of China’s furniture industry is approaching, and the industry space is still large.

China’s furniture industry has continued to grow for the past ten years.

  Before 2010, the furniture market’s transaction volume and booths increased rapidly. Before 2011, the development of the furniture market was affected by the changes in the sales of commercial housing. The overall growth rate of the furniture market in recent years has improved compared with the previous period.

The development of China’s furniture industry has roughly gone through three stages: from the 1990s to 2004, the single-category customization stage; from 2004 to 2014, some manufacturers began to develop towards multi-category custom furniture; after 2014, custom furniture manufacturers can become “cabinetThe development path of “category / wood door single category → multi-category → whole house” development.

  At present, the furniture industry’s market dividends are fading, and the industry is in a transition period: 1) the stock market replaces the incremental market as the main battlefield; 2) the traffic structure is transformed, reflected in the fragmentation of consumer behavior, the slightness of traffic entrance and the diversification of consumption scenarios3) Changes in intergenerational relationships are affecting consumer consumption behaviors, and the pursuit of personalization, high-quality experience and mental consumption is far more than in the past; 4) The marginal effect of industrialization growth is diminishing.

The long-term growth of the enterprise will be driven by three factors: brand, passenger flow and user experience.

In terms of industry space, we estimate that by 2022, the market size of customized closet terminals is expected to reach 189.4 billion.

  The product-side research and development strength is outstanding, and the production and sales rate remains high.

In terms of R & D management, the company’s R & D expenditure has increased year by year, reaching 1 in 2018.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 36% in ten years, R & D expenses accounted for 4% of operating income.

9%, a high level in the same industry, which is the basis for the company’s long-term development potential.

In terms of capacity layout, the company ‘s capacity utilization rate reached more than 86% at the beginning of the listing. In order to alleviate pressure on capacity and increase the proportion of high-quality products, the company actively carried out the development of production bases.

In terms of volume, the volume of the company’s overall wardrobe and supporting furniture cabinets has increased year by year, and the production and sales rate has been close to 100% in recent years, maintaining a high level.

  Focus on distribution, improve user experience in many ways.

At the channel end, the company mainly deals with distribution. As of the end of the first half of 2019, the company has more than 1,100 dealers, 1,803 dealer stores, and 15 directly operated stores.

  In terms of revenue, the company’s distribution channel revenue accounted for 92% -96%, and direct sales accounted for 4% -7%. The bulk business revenue accounted for a relatively low amount, less than 1%.

In terms of city level, the company’s revenue mainly comes from B-level cities (mainly prefecture-level cities), accounting for about 43%, C-level cities (mainly county-level cities and below) account for about 34%, and Class A cities (mainlyProvincial capitals, municipalities directly under the central government, and sub-provincial cities) account for about 23% of their income.

Marketing: The company is user-centric and provides differentiated overall professional supporting services. It continuously exports resources and capabilities to business partners to jointly provide quality services to consumers.

  We are optimistic that the company will actively transform during the industry transformation period and maintain the “Strong Push” rating.

We continue to be optimistic about the company’s category expansion and channel expansion based on the main business of wardrobes, including cabinets and wooden doors. At the same time, the company cooperates with Qijiawang to achieve development in the field of assembly.

Taking into account the increase 杭州桑拿网 in the company’s short-term strategic resource input, we adjust the company’s profit forecast and expect the net profit to be returned to the mother in 2019-2021.

22/4.

64/5.

1.5 billion (originally predicted net profit attributable to mothers from 2019-2021 4).

59/5.

30/6.

10,000 yuan), corresponding to the current market value of PE is 11/10/9 times, taking into account the company’s new business development and assembly business exploration, with reference to the company’s historical evaluation and comparable companies, given 16 times PE in 2019, lower the target price to 22Yuan / share, maintain “strong push” rating.

  Risk warning: the competition for channel expansion is intensifying, the scale of the real estate market is growing, and new business expansion is less than expected.